About Pew Research Center Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. A new poll released by the Pew Research Center shows a strong divide between Biden and Trump voters going into election day. The economy is consistently a top voting issue. And although the analysis presented here explicitly manipulated party affiliation among nonvoters as part of the experiment, our regular approach to weighting also includes a target for party affiliation that helps minimize the possibility that sample-to-sample fluctuations in who participates could introduce errors. Pew Research Center does not take policy positions. This means that our survey question on immigration does not change in lockstep with changes in how many Trump supporters or Republicans are included in the poll. Not all applications of polling serve the same purpose. These problems led some commentators to argue that “polling is irrevocably broken,” that pollsters should be ignored, or that “the polling industry is a wreck, and should be blown up.”, The true picture of preelection polling’s performance is more nuanced than depicted by some of the early broad-brush postmortems, but it is clear that Trump’s strength was not fully accounted for in many, if not most, polls. Unlike the situation among voters, where we have the national vote margin as a target, we do not have an agreed-upon, objective target for the distribution of partisanship among nonvoters. In fact, of 12 issues included, the only ones that comparable shares of Biden supporters and Trump supporters view as very important are foreign policy and Supreme Court appointments. A flip in the voter preferences of 3% or 4% of the sample can change which candidate is predicted to win an election, but it isn’t enough to dramatically change judgments about opinion on most issue questions. Consider… Voters Say Those on the Other Side 'Don't Get' Them. A lack of trust in other people or in institutions such as governments, universities, churches or science, might be an example of a phenomenon that leads both to nonparticipation in surveys and to errors in measures of questions related to trust. The reality is that we don’t know for sure how accurate issue polling is. A new Pew Research Center analysis of survey questions from nearly a year’s worth of its public opinion polling finds that errors of the magnitude seen in some of the 2020 election polls would alter measures of opinion on issues by an average of less than 1 percentage point. The maximum change observed across the 48 questions was 3 points for a particular answer and 5 points for the margin between alternative answers. Pew Research Center conducted this study to understand how errors in correctly representing the level of support for Joe Biden and Donald Trump in preelection polling could affect the accuracy of questions in those same polls (or other polls) that measure public opinion on issues. The Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan American think tank (referring to itself as a "fact tank") based in Washington, D.C. (+1) 202-419-4300 | Main Pew Research Center does not take policy positions. But the margin among voters is small. Public opinion polls and studies. Polling professionals should be mindful of this type of potential error. The Biden voters who are replaced by Trump voters are shown as the dark blue vertical strip in the middle of the left-hand panel of the graphic (12-point victory) and dark red in the right panel (more modest 4-point victory). Preference for smaller versus bigger government, a fundamental dividing line between the parties, differed by 2 points between the versions. Opinion questions on issues that have been at the core of partisan divisions in U.S. politics tended to be the only ones that showed any difference between the balanced version and the tilted version. One scenario mirrored the true election outcome among voters (a 4.4-point Biden advantage, and another substantially overstated Biden’s advantage (a 12-point lead). The simulation takes advantage of the fact that our principal source of data on public opinion is the American Trends Panel, a set of more than 10,000 randomly selected U.S. adults who have agreed to take regular online surveys from us. Exit poll results and analysis for the 2020 presidential election. This is still considerably smaller than the share of Democratic nonvoters who think the government is responsible for ensuring coverage (78%), but it is far more than we see among Republican voters. From the New York Times' The Upshot, an interactive map of precinct-level results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, including an option to compare changes from 2016 to 2020. This adjustment, in effect, flips the vote preferences of some of the voters. All other questions tested showed smaller differences. Among nonvoters, support among partisans for their party’s traditional positions – especially among Republicans – is even weaker. But good pollsters take many steps to improve the accuracy of their polls. Asked whether they favor a larger government providing more services or a smaller government providing fewer services, nearly one-fourth of Biden’s supporters (23%) opted for smaller government, a position not usually associated with Democrats or Democratic candidates. It is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts. Differences of a magnitude that could make an election forecast inaccurate are less consequential when looking at issue polling. Two other items also showed a 3-point difference on one of the response options. By contrast, the Democratic Party holds wide advantages among voters on climate change (58% to 27% over the GOP), abortion and contraception (51% to 36%) and health care (51% t0 37%). About six-in-ten (59%) say violent crime will be very important to their 2020 decision, and 57% say this about foreign policy. The 2020 raw data is available on Github. As States Certify Ballot Totals, An Extraordinary Election Comes To An End . Pew Research Center does not take policy positions. The accuracy of issue polling could be harmed by the same problems that affected election polling because support for Trump vs. Biden is highly correlated with party affiliation and opinions on many issues. Election polls have an extra difficulty that issue polling does not: They must represent not the general public but rather the people who will actually vote in the election – a population that doesn’t yet exist at the time the poll is conducted. Election2020 — March 3, 2021 0 comment. Pollsters often point to successes in forecasting elections as a reason to trust polling as a whole. Defining generations: Where Millennials … It provides information on social issues, public opinion, and demographic trends shaping the United States and the world. Pew Research Center. Here's What They Want Them to Know. With the country in the midst of a recession, nearly eight-in-ten registered voters (79%) say the economy will be very important to them in making their decision about who to vote for in the 2020 presidential election – the top issue of 12 included in the survey. Amazon has a lot of products to memory-hole. Pew Research Center does not take policy positions. Article: As States Certify Ballot Totals, An Extraordinary Election Comes To An End Election 2020, Election Reform. Across a set of 48 opinion questions and 198 answer categories, most answer categories changed less than 0.5%. About Pew Research Center Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. No. To visualize how few voters need to change to affect the margin between the candidates, consider a hypothetical poll of 1,000 adults. As the country continues to grapple with the coronavirus outbreak, 62% of voters say the outbreak will be a very important factor in their decision about who to support in the fall. Despite cautions from those inside and outside the profession, polling will continue to be judged, fairly or not, on the performance of preelection polls. And 43% of them favor a larger government providing more services. After the November election, we asked our panelists if they voted, and if so, for whom. For this analysis, we used several surveys conducted in 2020 with more than 10,000 members of Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP), an online survey panel that is recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses that ensures that nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. Sizable differences in the margin between the candidates can result from relatively small errors in the composition of the sample. Read More. Several polls had Biden leads that were nearly as large during this time period. A Resource for State Preelection Polling. Voters Say Those on the Other Side 'Don't Get' Them. A poll could accurately represent the general public but fail to correctly forecast which members of the public will turn out to vote. From November 2019 through December 2020, the Pathways project explored how Americans’ news habits and attitudes related to what they heard, perceived and knew about the 2020 presidential election and COVID-19. In a poll that gauges opinions on an issue, an error of a few percentage points typically will not matter for the conclusions we draw from the survey. Despite the long-term aging of registered voters, 2020 marks the first time that many members of Generation Z – Americans born after 1996 – will be able to participate in a presidential election. And by using respondents’ self-reported vote choice measured after the election, we avoid complications from respondents who may have changed their minds between taking the survey and casting their ballot. The underlying mechanism that weakens the association between levels of candidate support (or party affiliation) and opinions on issues should apply to polls conducted by any organization at any level of geography, but we examined it using only our surveys. But nearly all of Pew Research Center’s public opinion polling on issues is conducted among the general public and not just among voters. One strength of this analysis is that the election is over, and it’s not necessary to guess at what Trump support ought to have been in these surveys. That fact limits the extent to which errors in estimates of candidate preference can affect the accuracy of issue polling. Three examples from a summer 2020 survey illustrate the point. Tag: Pew Research Center. As a result of these efforts, several studies have shown that properly conducted public opinion polls produce estimates very similar to benchmarks obtained from federal surveys or administrative records. However, this study is not without its limitations. On other issues, including immigration, gun policy, the federal budget deficit and law enforcement and criminal justice, neither party has a significant edge among voters. 75% of Americans say itu2019s likely that Russia or other governments will try to influence 2020 election. How many voters must be “changed” to move the margin from 12 points to about 4 points? But as may be apparent by comparing the pictures on the left and right, the two pictures of the electorate are quite similar. Voting is the defining act for a democracy. The samples are adjusted to match parameters measured in high-quality, high response rate government surveys that can be used as benchmarks. This fact lessens the impact of changing the balance of candidate support and party affiliation in a poll. But “highly correlated” does not mean “the same as.” Even on issues where sizable majorities of Republicans and Democrats (or Trump and Biden supporters) line up on opposite sides, there remains more diversity in opinion among partisans about issues than in candidate preference. (+1) 202-857-8562 | Fax But it’s also possible that the topics of some opinion questions in polls – even if not partisan in nature – may be related to the reasons some people choose not to participate in surveys. This analysis finds that polls about public opinion on issues can be useful and valid, even if the poll overstates or understates a presidential candidate’s level of support by margins seen in the 2020 election. Shifting the focus to party affiliation among nonvoters, we see even less fidelity of partisans to issue positions typically associated with those parties. Many opinions on issues are associated with demographic variables such as race, education, gender and age, just as they are with partisanship. Groups that candidates won by six or more percentage points. Changing a small share of the sample can make a big difference in the margin between two candidates. This finding may seem surprising. Evangelical churches and their suburban members are a key to President Donald Trump’s voter support in Texas. While not providing direct evidence of the accuracy of measures of opinion on issues, they suggest that polls can accurately capture a range of phenomena including lifestyle and health behaviors that may be related to public opinion. Neither party has a monopoly on the voting public. Pew Research Center weights its samples to address both of these biases, but there is no guarantee that weighting completely solves the problem. To demonstrate the range of possible error in issue polling that could result from errors like those seen in 2020 election polling, we conducted a simulation that produced two versions of several of our opinion surveys from 2020, similar to the manipulation depicted in the hypothetical example shown above. Before describing the results in more detail, it’s important to be explicit about the assumptions underlying this exercise. The adjustment from the tilted version (a 12-point Biden advantage with a 10-point Democratic advantage in party affiliation among nonvoters) to the balanced version (a 4.4-point Biden advantage with equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans among nonvoters), makes very little difference in the balance of opinion on issue questions. Election polls in highly competitive elections must provide a level of accuracy that is difficult to achieve in a world of very low response rates. The answer is not very many – just 38 of the 1,000, or about 4% of the total. In the current survey, 68% of voters say health care is very important to their vote, while 64% cite Supreme Court appointments. In the context of the 2020 presidential election, a change of that small size could have shifted the outcome from a spot-on Biden lead of 4.4 points to a very inaccurate Biden lead of 12 points. Here are key findings on Americans’ engagement with the political campaigns in this year’s election based on Pew Research Center’s post-election survey, conducted Nov. 12-17. One 3-point difference was on presidential job approval, a measure very strongly associated with the vote. Numbers, Facts and Trends Shaping Your World. In Pasco County, Florida, election officials and voters can track mail-in ballots like an Amazon package through Ballot Scout (a tool created by Democracy Works, which is funded in part by The Pew Charitable Trusts — which also funds Stateline). Pew Research Center has documented the steadily increasing alignment of party affiliation with political values and opinions on issues, a type of political polarization. Nonvoters make up a sizable minority of general public survey samples. But this does not mean that pollsters should quit striving to have their surveys accurately represent Republican, Democratic and other viewpoints. Most Republicans Approve of Trump’s Post-election Messaging, but About a Third Say It Has Been Wrong . It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. (+1) 202-419-4300 | Main There’s almost never a one-to-one correspondence between the share of voters for a candidate and the share of people holding a particular opinion that aligns with the opinion of that candidate’s party. A Field Guide to Polling: Election 2020 Edition, What Low Response Rates Mean for Telephone Surveys, Comparing Survey Sampling Strategies: Random-Digit Dial vs. Voter Files, Broad Public Support for Coronavirus Aid Package; Just a Third Say It Spends Too Much, Defining generations: Where Millennials end and Generation Z begins, Growing Share of Americans Say They Plan To Get a COVID-19 Vaccine – or Already Have. Global Public Opinion and Election Polling Market Report 2020 Featuring Rasmussen Reports, Pew Research, Nielsen Co, Ipsos, Eastcoast Research, SurveyMonkey, Gnosis and Group Dynamics In-Focus Fewer than half say climate change (42%) or abortion (40%) will be very important factors in their decision (though majorities say these issues will be at least somewhat important to them). If the partisans in our panel do not accurately reflect the partisans in the general public, we may not capture the full impact of over- or underrepresenting one party or the other. To investigate those concerns, the Pew Research Center did a thorough analysis over the past few months, culminating in a report released yesterday. Pew Research Center’s Data Labs uses computational methods to complement and expand on the Center’s existing research agenda. In addition, Biden supporters are more than twice as likely than Trump supporters to say the coronavirus outbreak (82% of Biden supporters, 39% of Trump supporters) and economic inequality (65% of Biden supporters, 28% of Trump supporters) as very important. 1615 L St. NW, Suite 800 Washington, DC 20036 USA (+1) 202-419-4300 | Main (+1) 202-419-4349 | Fax (+1) 202 … The share of people who said that CNN had been a major source of news about the presidential election in the period after Election Day was 2 points higher in the tilted version than the balanced version, while the share who cited Fox News as a major source was 1 point higher in the balanced version than the tilted version. Specifically, if polls about issues are underrepresenting the Republican base the way that many 2020 preelection polls appeared to, how inaccurate would they be on measures of public opinion about issues? It is a subsidiary of Pepe Le Pew will be leaving YouTube shortly and eBay will likely forbid you from selling your old DVDs of the cartoon. At the same time, Democrats and independents … Courtney Kennedy, Director, Survey Research, The Pew Research Center, during her, “What the 2020 Pre-Election Poll Performance Might Mean for Mass Opinion Polls”, shed considerable light on the potential drivers of the sizable errors in many of the State-by-State election polls. An Extremely Detailed Map of the 2020 Election. Only a small share of the survey sample must change to produce what we perceive as a dramatic shift in the vote margin and potentially an incorrect forecast. (+1) 202-419-4372 | Media Inquiries. We expect and need more precision from election polls because the circumstances demand it. About Pew Research Center Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. The partisan shares among nonvoters in the two versions are arbitrary, chosen simply to demonstrate the effects of a 10-point difference. We cannot know that for sure. On a question about whether the growing number of newcomers from other countries threatens American values or strengthens its society, nearly one-third of Trump’s supporters (31%) take the pro-immigrant view, despite the fact that the Trump administration took a number of steps to limit both legal and illegal immigration. Yet, while the division is fairly close to equal, it is not completely equal – Republicans do not outnumber Democrats among actual voters in either one. The Biden voters have a correspondingly smaller voice. But what is the relevance of election polling’s problems in 2020 for the rest of what public opinion polling attempts to do? Collectively, the methods used to align survey samples with the demographic, social and political profile of the public help ensure that opinions correlated with those characteristics are more accurate. A sizable majority also rates racial and ethnic inequality as important to their vote (76%). Despite the fact that news audiences are quite polarized politically, there were typically only small differences between the two versions in how many people have been relying on particular sources for news in the aftermath of the presidential election. Given the errors in 2016 and 2020, how much should we trust polls that attempt to measure opinions on issues?1. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research.
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